Egypts main argument might be that, despite being unsatisfactory and anachronistic, the Nile Waters Treaties remain good law and are enforceable against the respective parties. It has led a diplomatic initiative to undermine support for the dam in the region; as well as in other countries supporting the project such as China and Italy. Article 7 provides that watercourse states must take all appropriate measures to prevent significant harm to other watercourse States and that, where harm does occur, there shall be consultations to discuss the question of compensation. Finally, Article 8 requires that watercourse states cooperate on the basis of sovereign equality, territorial integrity, mutual benefit and good faith.. China at the heart of rising Nile River conflict - Asia Times grand ethiopian renaissance dam. The situation seemed to improve in the beginning of 2015 when tripartite negotiations were held in order to determine principles of cooperation. Salman, S.M.A. Impacts of Grand Renaissance Dam on Economic Development in Ethiopia Second, the upstream riparian states must recognize and accept Egypts near total dependence on the waters of the Nile River. Afraid that a drought might appear during the filling period, Egypt wants the filling to take place over a much longer period. Similarly, both the final agreement between the riparian states for the allocation of the water and resources of the Nile should include a dispute resolution mechanism. Match facts: Egypts Ahly v South Africas Mamelodi Sundowns (CAF Champions.. Kevin Harts first Egypt show cancelled 'due to local logistical issues', Match facts: Sudans Al-Hilal v Egypts Ahly (CAF Champions League), Match facts: Egypts Ahly v Cameroons Coton Sport (CAF Champions League), Egyptian Premier League results & scorers (20th matchday), Spain La Liga results & scorers (21st matchday), 13 Egyptian women on Forbes Middle East 100 Most Powerful businesswomen 2023, Egyptian Premier League results & fixtures (18th matchday), English Premier League results & scorers (23rd matchday), Prioritising the best solutions for sustainable development, A new beginning for education and beyond, Prioritizing the UN's Global Development Agenda, US-Africa Leaders Summit: Between expectations and realities. The filling time is estimated to take about 10 years, during which the Blue Nile water flows would be reduced. Both Egypt and Ethiopia could make arguments in support of their positions. The IPoE report recommended two studies to assess the environmental and socio-economic impacts of GERD and was interpreted by both the Egyptian and the Ethiopian government as a vindication of their respective positions. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a powerful generation linchpin The disadvantages for Egypt and Sudan are the possibility of reduced river flow, although this is only really a problem during the years of filling the dam. It states in Principle III that the parties shall take all appropriate measures to prevent the causing of significant harm. However, Sudans future water requirements will likely exceed its water quota as defined in the 1959 Agreement. As early as 1957, Ethiopian officials said that the Somalian economy could not survive on its own given how heavily dependent it was on Ethiopia. On March 4, 1982, Bertha Wilson became the first woman appointed to the Supreme Court of Canada. Ethiopias interests in developing its water resources are driven by its growing population and high demand for socio-economic development (Gebreluel, 2014). Sudans agricultural and hydropower interests align with those of Ethiopia while it has a strong interest in not alienating its 'big brother' and northern neighbour, Egypt, with whom it shares a long and partly contested border (Whittington et al., 2014). Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing AG, 79-110. (2020). All three countries have a vested interest in a properly operated dam. First, as noted above, Ethiopia contributes 86% of the water in the Nile and so it seems only natural that it has an equitable claim to using Nile waters to aid growth in its impoverished economy. First woman appointed to the Canada Supreme Court. The announcement on Friday comes a day after Ethiopia said it had launched power production from the second turbine at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). One question that keeps coming up is: Will Ethiopia be willing to release enough water from the reservoir to help mitigate a drought downstream? The controversy over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam - Brookings (2011). On 5 July 2021, Ethiopia informed Egypt and Sudan that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia is undergoing its second filling. Alaa al-Zawahiri, a member of the Egyptian National Panel of Experts studying the effects of the Renaissance Dam, believes as much. Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam. Cairo Controversy prevailed in the Egyptian public opinion, after Deltares, a Dutch advisory institute, announced on Sept. 15 its withdrawal from a study to assess the risks that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is under construction on the Blue Nile, can cause to Egypt and Sudan. Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam - jpl.nasa.gov - Ethiopia's massive. Ethiopian opinion is divided over the need for such huge investments in hydroelectric energy when the national network is still very underdeveloped and unable to cope. In my opinion, this should be negotiable, to fill the lake over a longer period, and only when the river is sufficiently full. Egypt, Ethiopia to form joint committee on Renaissance Dam. Typically, treaties contain provisions on the identification and function of the depositary, entry into force, adoption and so on (Article 24(4) Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT)). Ethiopia and Egypt Are Fighting Over the Nile River. The United States What Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia must overcome to all benefit from the Grand Renaissance Dam. For example, Ethiopians and Egyptians are more likely to understand and appreciate the challenges that they face, particularly in the areas of water security, climate change, food production, and poverty alleviation, if they regularly interact with each other and engage in more bottom-up, participatory and inclusive approaches to the resolution of their conflicts. But with a generation capacity of 6.45GW, the Ethiopian government quoted the project as vital to the country's economic growth. Tawfik, Rawia Discussion Paper 5/2015 . The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a Big Deal - BORGEN 67K views 6 months ago ETIOPIA The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, on the Blue Nile, is located around 14 km upstream of the Ethiopian-Sudan Border, at around 700 km from the Capital. In terms of putative new law, namely the Watercourses Convention and the DoP, the key principles of equitable utilisation and no significant harm seem to leave ample room to accommodate the construction of a dam for hydroelectric generation purposes. A more recent trilateral meeting mediated by the African Union in mid-July, however, appeared to diffuse the situation with all three countries reaching a major common understanding towards achieving an agreement (Al Jazeera, 2020). However, this threatens the basin's long-term sustainability (as water use expands beyond what is environmentally feasible) and suboptimal in terms of capital allocation (as higher water use upstream may make downstream projects uneconomical (Swain, 2011). There are suggestions that Egyptian officials in the World Bank managed to precipitate a policy that funds would only be awarded for non-contentious water projects, thus precluding funding for the Dam. Negotiations resumed three weeks after Al-Sisi took office in June 2014, and an agreement was made to resume negotiations - an achievementhailed by both Egypt and Ethiopia as a new chapter in relations between Egypt and Ethiopia based on openness and mutual understanding and cooperation (Omar, 2014). The largest permanent desert lake in the world, Turkana has three national parks that are now listed as UNESCO World Heritage Sites. These two factors could become serious problems. The Washington Quarterly, 37(2), 25-37. Egypt and Ethiopia have once again locked horns over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile. Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) - ArcGIS StoryMaps On March 4, 1834, the town of York in the British colony of Canada was incorporated as the City of Toronto. A political requirement will be to agree on rules for filling the GERD reservoir and on operating rules for the GERD, especially during periods of drought. Because the strategy of land allocation and dam construction relied on senior executive decisions and foreign funding from China, above all, the government was largely freed of pressures of transparency and accountability. No water at all was allocated to Ethiopia. The Tendaho, Tekeze, and the Gibe series are only a few examples from that period. Ethiopia, with a population of more than 115 million people and Projected to be 230 million by 2050. If it is allowed to reach dangerous levels, water scarcity has the potential to trigger conflicts. It and several other large dams in Ethiopia could turn the country into Africa's hydropower hub. In the absence of the application of the Watercourses Convention, various other legal arrangements and political declarations must be considered to gain an understanding of the regulation of the Dam and the Nile River more generally. We do know that Ethiopia is already seeing longer droughts and worse floods. 2. In the modern era, the US used water to blackmail Egypt. From this round of talks, it appears that negotiations are able to move forward and address other sticking points on the agenda, such as conflict resolution mechanisms and the dams operations in the event of multi-year droughts (Al Jazeera, 2020). The principles of cooperation have not been translated into specific technical agreements on dam management (and more), in the context of difficult domestic politics for both sides. These are two of the largest dams in Africa. It is clearly a philosophy that looks beyond the electricity and freshwater needs of local communities to a geo-strategic restructuring of the Horn of Africa. However, the DoP lacks these key traits, and these omissions suggest that it may simply be a non-binding declaration designed to ease political tensions and to illuminate a way forward. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will have negative impacts not only on Egypt but also on poor communities in Ethiopia as well as on its Nile Basin neighbours. On the contrary, GERD has a positive impact in terms of reducing flood and silting and boost water conservation as well as generate energy for the region. What is your opinion on Ethiopia's chances of completing the "Great At the same. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. That seems unlikely given that the DoP concerns the Dam alone and was agreed only between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan; whereas the Nile Waters Treaties concern the whole Nile Basin and involve many more states. The countrys 2003 development plan introduced many more, and the Ethiopian government launched an ambitious PR campaign to encourage donor nations and international funding agencies to support these projects financially and ideologically as the highway to Ethiopian development and prosperity. Al Jazeera (2020). After all, the VCLT allows states to withdraw from or terminate a treaty owing to a fundamental change of circumstances which has occurred and which was not foreseen by the parties (Article 62(1)). For more on the background and history of these important relationships, see my book with former AGI Director Mwangi S. Kimenyi, Governing the Nile River Basin: The Search for a New Legal Regime., not be filled without a legally binding agreement, when the flow of Nile water to the dam falls below 35-40 b.c.m. Although the immediate issue at stakesecuring a technical agreement on the filling of the GERDs reservoiris among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, the broader and longer-term goal should be for all 11 statesincluding Tanzania, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Eritrea, and South Sudanto agree on a legal regime for the management of this important watercourse. In response, Ethiopia threatened military force to defend the dam and protect its interests (The New Arab, 2020a). However, it also entails potential negative effects on Egypt, if not carefully managed (see alsoSecurity implications of growing water scarcity in Egypt). Ethiopian general threatens military force to defend Nile dam as negotiations with Egypt falter. Furthermore, resolving conflicts involving the Nile River is most likely to be more successful through improvements in relations between the riparians and not through external intervention. Despite the fact that newly independent Sudan in the late 1950s was literally forced by a dominant Egypt into a highly asymmetrical water-sharing arrangement, Sudan has rarely challenged this arrangement. Sudan, caught between the competing interests of both Egypt and Ethiopia, has been changing its stance on the issue. 497 Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Premium High Res Photos - Getty Images Hence, it is hard to see how Egypt could make a compelling argument that it has been harmed by the Dam. The Kenyan Lake is heavily dependent on the fresh water and vital nutrients supplied by the rivers annual floods, making it a paradise for fisheries. I agree with the delivery of the newsletter. Egypt, which lies 1,600 miles downstream of the Dam, believes its operation will reduce the amount of fresh water available to it from the Nile. While such dams also come with long-term benefits to local populations, the chief beneficiary will always be the state, which reaps profits from the sale of surplus electricity. Another important area of cooperation is research, especially in areas like climate change, the fight against terrorism and extremism, and human rights. As noted above, the instrument concedes for the first time that Ethiopia has legitimate interests over the Nile. It can be demand-driven, typically caused by population growth, and supply-driven, typically caused by decreasing amounts of fresh water often resulting from climate change or a result of societal factors such as poverty. Since plans for Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) were first announced in 2011, Cairo has viewed the project as a serious threat to the country's water supply. AFRICANGLOBE. It also created a counter message to Egypts powerful the Nile is Egypt narrative that is familiar around the world. Egyptian Water Security and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Why This is a matter of acute concern given that Egypt depends on the Nile for about 97% of its irrigation and drinking water. Stratfor Worldview. Ethiopia's determination to build a major new dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), for hydropower purposes has been the flashpoint of current conflicts in the Eastern Nile Basin (Gebreluel, 2014). The researchers looked at the dynamic interactions between the Nile's hydrology and infrastructure and Egypt's economy. The Politics Of The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam - Analysis Given these considerations, it seems that Ethiopia has all but won the dispute. Africa's largest dam fills Ethiopia with hope and Egypt with dread Washington Must Act Now to Save Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam [18] Challenges for water sharing in the Nile basin: changing geo-politics and changing climate. The crucial leverage regarding Egypts water security lies with the Blue Nile countries Ethiopia and Sudan, as the Blue Nile is the main contributor to the Nile Rivers flow downstream. Article IV of the DoP provides that the parties shall utilize their shared water resources in their respective territories in an equitable and reasonable manner and Article III provides that the parties shall take all appropriate measures to prevent the causing of significant harm in utilizing the Blue/Main Nile. Ethiopia can make a strong case that the operation of the Dam complies with each principle. The toll on the local communities affected by the dams has been enormous. But controversy has surrounded the project ever since it was announced in 2011 especially concerning its . The Untold Story of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Both countries are concerned that without a clear and binding agreement with Ethiopia, the latter will have full control of the passage of water from the GERD during droughts, which would be devastating to the lives of millions in Egypt and Sudan. Why the Nile could see a 'water war'. At stake, too, is . Huddersfield Repository - University of Huddersfield l located on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia . Thus, as with the Watercourses Convention and the CFA, the DoP does not offer a clear legal resolution to the dispute. With regard to the mega-dams, the Gilgel Gibe III Dam and the GERD speak volumes on the substance of Zenawis political ideology. GIGA Focus No. Water Politics and the Gulf States: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Despite several tripartite meetings between November 2013 and January 2014, no agreement was reached on the implementation of the IPoE recommendations and controversies were evolving around the constitution of a trilateral committee. In my opinion, this should be negotiable, to fill the lake over a longer period, and only when the river is sufficiently full. This agreement could pave the way for a more detailed cooperation framework, and represents a major step toward dispute resolution. The Tripartite National Council (TNC) was then established, consisting of members from each of the three countries with the aim of carrying through the IPoE's recommendations (Attia & Saleh, 2021). In recognition of the fact that the Nile Waters Treaties had become an uncomfortable and anachronistic vestige of colonialism, ten watercourse states along the Nile (including Egypt and Ethiopia) agreed in 1999 to form the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI). Amazingly, the normally required social and environmental impact studies were only conducted three years after construction of the dam had began. Further, it means that this figure should be used to assess the impact of the Dam on the Egyptian economy for the purposes of calculating compensation resulting from loss of flow. The Government of Egypt, a country which relies heavily on the waters of the Nile, has demanded that Ethiopia cease construction on the dam as a preconditions to negotiations, sought regional support for its position, and some political leaders have discussed methods to sabotage it. The Political Deadlock on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Ethiopia completes third filling of Blue Nile mega-dam reservoir