This includes personalizing content and advertising. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. The Epoch Times - YouTube The counties that predict presidential election winners didn't this And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. How could the 'bellwether counties' get it so wrong? Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Its horrible. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. I quit voting once out of the union.. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. Your email address will not be published. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . At least Biden is honest, he said. Its gone, Jacobs said. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The counties are also mostly small and rural. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. Theres significant variability among them though. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. This claim is basically absurd. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. Blaine County. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. Im not happy with either party. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. SACRAMENTO . Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. What a Bellwether County Is Saying About 2020 Election - The Epoch Times The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. To accept cookies, click continue. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. You have to take the lesser of two evils. I just want Trump in. Bremer County, Iowa Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties.
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